Some rebuild, USC reloads
NCAA Football Betting Lines
07/02/2009 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Within the world of college basketball, there is a general consensus that the North Carolina Tar Heels have a huge recruiting advantage that helps bring a never ending supply of blue-chippers to Chapel Hill. Of course, a great reason for that advantage is the past success of the program, as the conference titles, Final Four appearances and national championships have piled up along the way.
The football equivalent is on the left coast, in the form of USC. The Trojans possess a seemingly never-ending conveyor belt of talent, and the result is seven straight campaigns of 11 wins or more, seven Pac-10 crowns in a row, seven consecutive BCS Bowl appearances and a couple of national titles sprinkled in.
The 2008 campaign brought more of the same, as Pete Carroll's troops won 12 of their 13 games, with the one blemish being a 27-21 upset loss at Oregon State in late September. The Trojans buckled down after that, winning 10 straight, including a 38-24 victory over a good Penn State team in the Rose Bowl.
The team was once again stellar on both sides of the football, averaging well over 400 yards per game, while yielding just over 200 defensively.
The real question heading into 2009, is whether or not USC has the talent to remain on the top of the heap in the Pac-10 and stay in the hunt for yet another national title.
On the offensive side of things, the Trojans will go into the season with very little experience under center. Mark Sanchez has jumped ship to the NFL and from a financial perspective made the right move, considering the New York Jets made him the fifth pick overall.
The quarterback crop this year consists of Aaron Corp, Matt Barkley and Mitch Mustain. Following the spring, Carroll announced that it will be Corp leading the troops, although competition will still be lively heading into the summer and fall. The main problem with the selection is that Corp, just a sophomore this season, completed only two passes last year as the third-string QB. Still, Carroll has plenty of confidence in Corp, who was a Parade All-American in the prep ranks. Mustain has the most experience, starting eight games at Arkansas before transferring to USC in 2007. Barkley is a true freshman and while he possesses a huge upside, he is still a year or two away from making a real impact under center.
The team's ground game, which averaged almost 200 yards per game last year, returns intact and is a real strength heading into the season. A limitless supply of quality backs will be difficult for defenses to contend with. Expect Carroll to lean heavily on his stable of thoroughbreds, most notably Stafon Johnson, C.J. Gable and Joe McKnight.
The receiving corps loses big target Patrick Turner (third-round draft pick), but returns emerging star Damian Williams, who posted a team-high 58 receptions, for 869 yards and nine TDs in 2008.
The offensive line will also be a real strength, with five starters returning led by Preseason All-American Kristofer O'Dowd at center. There is plenty of depth behind the incumbents, and the result should be one of the nation's best offensive fronts.
The other side of the ball has its share of questions, with only five starters returning. The main concerns are within the front seven, which has lost standout linebackers Brian Cushing, Clay Matthews (both first round draft picks) and Rey Maualuga (second-round pick), as well as Fili Moala (second- round), Kyle Moore (fourth-round) and key reserve Kaluka Maiava (fourth- round).
The new-look front could be built around junior end Everson Griffin, who has star potential and served as an effective pass rush specialist last year.
The secondary loses a pair of steady performers as well in Kevin Ellison and Cary Harris (both selected in the NFL draft), but the crown jewel of the defense returns in the form of All-American safety Taylor Mays. The 6-3, 235- pounder could have left for the NFL after his junior campaign, but the two- time All-American returns to anchor the Trojan defense and is poised for another huge campaign.
With all the holes on both sides of the football heading into the season, most teams would chalk up 2009 as a time to recruit heavily and reload for 2010 and beyond.
However, if we have learned anything since the turn of the century, it is that USC does not qualify as "most teams."
Atlanta, GA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Atlanta Thrashers have re-signed forward Chris Thorburn to a multi-year contract. Financial terms of the deal were not disclosed. Thorburn appeared in all 82 games for the Thrashers last season and r
<< Angels return home to host Orioles
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Los Angeles Angels return home from a six-day road
trip in first place in the American League West. The two-time defending
division champions will try to stay on top when they start up a four-game
series
<< White Sox take win streak to Kansas City
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago White Sox will be putting a season-high win
streak on the line when the resurgent club heads to Kansas City's Kauffman
Stadium tonight for the opener of a four-game series with the Royals.
Chicago comes
<< Cardinals try to even up Giants in series finale
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Barry Zito tries to slow down Albert Pujols this evening
when the San Francisco Giants and St. Louis Cardinals conclude a four-game set
at Busch Stadium.
St. Louis won in dramatic fashion on Wednesday, as Colby Rasmus bel
<< Reds, D-Backs close series in Cincy
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Cincinnati Reds hope that Aaron Harang can have the
same type of outing Johnny Cueto had last night, as they wrap up a three-game
series Thursday afternoon from Great American Ball Park.
Cueto tossed six shutout inning
Sylvania, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Paula Creamer withdrew from her title defense at the Jamie Farr Owens Corning Classic before teeing off Thursday. Creamer injured her left thumb last week and had received treatment on the injury since wi
Serena outlasts Dementieva to reach fifth Wimbledon final >>
Wimbledon, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - In one of the best women's matches
played here in some time, two-time champion Serena Williams snuck past Olympic
gold medalist Elena Dementieva on Thursday to reach her fifth Wimbledon final.
The second
Blackhawks sign Madden away from New Jersey >>
Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago Blackhawks have signed center John
Madden to a one-year contract.
Financial terms of the deal for the long-time New Jersey Devils defensive
standout were not disclosed, but the Newark Star-Le
Flames sign Garth Murray >>
Calgary, AB (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Calgary Flames have signed veteran center
Garth Murray and forward Riley Armstrong.
Terms of the contracts were not disclosed.
Murray appeared in 10 games last season for Phoenix and did not registe
Shane Sellers returns tonight at Evangeline >>
Opelousas, LA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Retired jockey Shane Sellers begins his
return to the races tonight (Thursday) at Evangeline Downs in Louisiana.
Sellers has been away from racing for 4 1/2 years due to a serious knee
injury.
Marlins could start season without No. 2 starter Johnson
JUPITER, Fla. -- The Foorida Marlins are preparing for the likelihood that right-hander
Josh Johnson won't be ready when the season starts April 2.
Grapefruit League action starts Wednesday, but Johnson, penciled in as the No. 2 starter, hasn't even thrown off a mound at full speed since September. He's experienced some soreness in his right forearm.
MySportsbook.com have the Marlins listed with baseball betting lines at +800 to win the NL East this season .
''You guys know the math. If he's not on the hill then he becomes an opening day roster issue,'' manager Fredi Gonzalez said Saturday. ''We're borderline now.''
Johnson, who finished 12-7 with a 3.10 ERA in 2007, was supposed to throw on flat ground Saturday. That was canceled when he woke up with pain.
He played catch on Wednesday with no pain but felt discomfort in a throwing session on Thursday. He's expected to try again Sunday.
''Like we always said from the very beginning, we're going to take it easy on him,'' Gonzalez said. ''He didn't feel right, so we shut him down. We're going to take it back to step one and see where we're at.''
Among the candidates to take Johnson's spot in the rotation are left-hander Chris George and right-handers Yusmeiro Petit and Jose Garcia.
Right-hander Sergio Mitre, who missed most of last season with arm and shoulder problems, also is behind.
With Johnson's status doubtful, Gonzalez said right-hander Ricky Nolasco will stay in the rotation and no longer will be considered a candidate for closer.
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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting
So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.
Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?
If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)
Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).
In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.
Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.
| The Bubble Breakdown | |||
| CONFERENCE | LOCKS | SHOULD BE INS | AT-LARGES TAKEN (assuming no auto bid outlier) |
| ACC Betting Odds | 6 | 0 | 5 |
| Big East Betting Odds | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| Big Ten Betting Odds | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Big 12 Betting Odds | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| Pac-10 Betting Odds | 5 | 1 | 5 |
| SEC Betting Odds | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| MVC Betting Odds | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| MWC Betting Odds | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| TOTAL | 28 | 5 | 25 |
As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.
(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)
If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.
Atlantic Coast Conference
Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech
The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.
Work left to do:
Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.
Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).
Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.
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