Brewers aim to extend Mets' recent misery
Baseball Betting Lines
06/30/2009 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - While the Milwaukee Brewers are improving their stance in the National League Central, they're making it very difficult for the New York Mets to climb the NL East standings.
The NL Central-leading Brewers will resume a three-game series versus the Mets tonight at Miller Park and are coming off Monday's 10-6 win in the series opener. J.J. Hardy went 4-for-4 with a solo home run and Casey McGehee added a grand slam to break open the game in the sixth inning for Milwaukee, which moved a game ahead of St. Louis in the Central after the Cardinals lost to San Francisco Monday night.
"When I can be a little more removed from the situation, that is going to be something I always remember as really special," McGehee said on the team's site. "If someone would have told me this time last year that I was going to have 40,000 people calling me out of the dugout for a curtain call, I would have said you were lying."
McGehee made up for missing an easy pop fly to end the sixth inning, with his miscue allowing the Mets to score a pair of unearned runs. His first career grand slam then made a winner out of Braden Looper, who gave up three runs -- one earned -- in 6 1/3 innings. Carlos Villanueva was roughed up for three runs and five hits in only one-third of an inning, but closer Trevor Hoffman came to the rescue by getting the next two outs for his 18th save.
Milwaukee improved to 4-3 on a nine-game homestand and has won three of its last four games.
Brewers pitcher Mike Burns made his first major league start his last time out and will take another shot tonight versus the Mets. Burns was roughed up for four runs and six hits in 5 2/3 innings of a 6-4 setback to Minnesota on Thursday to absorb the loss. He fell to 0-1 with a 3.72 ERA in two games (one start) this season.
The right-hander faced the Mets for the first and only time on June 22, 2006 at Shea Stadium, and did not factor in the outcome of a 6-2 setback. Burns was a member of Cincinnati at the time and yielded two hits in two shutout innings.
New York has been struggling and is caught in a funk, having lost four straight and nine of the last 13 games to fall below the .500 mark at 37-38. In Monday's four-run loss in the opener of this set and a seven-game road trip, starter Fernando Nieve suffered his first loss of the season after permitting three runs and 11 hits over 3 1/3 innings of work.
"I didn't have my stuff like I usually had before," Nieve stated on the team's Web site. "My fastball wasn't as good as it was before. I started getting behind on guys and they were pretty aggressive."
Gary Sheffield finished with three hits, including a home run, and three RBI, while Ryan Church added four hits and Brian Schneider knocked in a pair of runs for the Mets, whose rally in the ninth produced three runs before falling short after Hoffman took the hill.
New York is three games behind the Philadelphia Phillies for the NL East lead, but the Florida Marlins are second at 2 1/2 games off the pace. The Mets will visit Philadelphia for three games starting Friday.
Mets ace Johan Santana gets the nod for Jerry Manuel's ballclub tonight and he is coming off a strong performance versus St. Louis on Thursday. Santana was 1-3 with a 7.33 ERA in four starts before beating the Cardinals with seven strong innings on the mound. He allowed two runs -- one earned -- in a 3-2 victory at Citi Field to improve to 9-5 in 15 starts this season and lower his earned run average from 3.22 to 3.08.
The two-time Cy Young Award winner, who is 3-3 in six road starts this season, will square off with Milwaukee for the second time in 2009. Santana earned a 1-0 win over the Brewers on April 18, as he surrendered five hits with seven strikeouts and no walks through seven shutout frames. The lefty is 4-2 with a 3.13 ERA in 12 career games (8 starts) against the Brewers.
New York took two of three meetings versus Milwaukee from April 17-19 at Citi Field and has won eight of the past 12 matchups between the teams.
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Football Betting Sportsbook Accepts Credit Cards
Michael Vick is back, Brett Favre isn't and the NFC East remains the best division in the NFC, maybe in all of football.
As players start to gather for the start of another season, some things change and some stay the same in the world of the NFL.
The NFC East has been the dominant division in the National Conference for a while, despite limited playoff success, save for the New York Giants surprise Super Bowl win two seasons ago.
Hell, there's a generation of kids in Texas who have never seen the Cowboys win a playoff game (last win was in 1996).
But collectively, the Giants, Eagles, Cowboys and Redskins (well, maybe not so much the Redskins) are as good as a division gets in an NFC conference that has struggled to stay competitive with the AFC side.
Sports bettors have both acknowledged the NFC East's dominance, as one glance at the NFL future odds menu will show.
Looking over the NFL betting odds at online sports book MySportsbook.com we see the top three teams listed to win the NFC Championship are all from the NFC East:
Dallas Cowboys - 7 - 1
Philadelphia Eagles - 13 - 2
New York Giants - 9 - 2
Slotting in behind these three are two teams from the NFC North: the Minnesota Vikings (15-2) and the Chicago Bears (10-1).
Again, despite the lack of recent playoff success, the Dallas Cowboys are popular with the sports betting community, as they hold 14% of all the money wagered on who will win the NFC Championship.
So far, the New York Giants are the bettors' favorite to represent their conference in the Super Bowl, as they have 24% of the overall NFC Championship betting volume.
And what about the Philadelphia Eagles? For the most part, the Eagles had a very productive offseason, the kind that could bring them back to the top.
They had a good draft adding the likes of WR Jeremy Maclin and RB LeSean McCoy.
Unfortunately, the team received a blow when long-time defensive coordinator Jim Johnson passed away on Tuesday.
But this team will make a real run at the division title this year. Going into the regular season, Philly is listed at +240 to win the division.
Last season the Eagles were 9-6-1 SU and 10-6 ATS.
Teams from the NFC East will play teams from the AFC West in the regular season and the Eagles haven't really been a good bet in the last 20 games against the likes of San Diego, Oakland, K.C. and Denver, only going 8-12 ATS.
Two seasons removed from that Super Bowl title, the New York Giants see themselves listed as the odds-on favorite in NFC East championship futures at +162.
Plaxico Burress is gone and with him all the bad publicity surrounding the gun in the sweatpants incident, but can they replace him in the offense?
Last season the Giants were a very reliable bet going 12-4 ATS.
In the Giants' last 20 games against fellow teams from the NFC East; they are 13-7 ATS.
Dallas is listed at +240 to win the division.
Dallas went 9-7 SU and 7-9 ATS last season and with the amount of talent the Cowboys have, a similar performance won't do.
The Cowboys have been atrocious against divisional rivals, going 6-14 ATS in their last 20.
The Washington Redskins are longshots to win the division at +550.
Visit MySportsbook.com for free sportsbook odds RSS feeds go to MySportsbook.com for all your betting football needs.
Sportsbooks to bet on football
Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.